The National Coastal Erosion Risk Management (NCERM) map shows the spatial NCERM coastal baseline. This baseline is split to ‘frontages’. These are defined as lengths of coast with consistent characteristics based on the cliff behaviour characteristics and the defence characteristics. It is intended as an up-to-date and reliable benchmark dataset showing erosion extents and rates for three periods from a base date of 2005:

  • Short Term (0 – 20yr i.e. 2005 to 2025);
  • Medium Term (20 – 50yr i.e. 2025 to 2055); and
  • Long Term (50 – 100yr i.e. 2055 to 2105).

The data extents are based on 50%ile confidence levels, whilst the data attributes highlight the 5-95%ile confidence range, of erosion predictions for the following two scenarios (NB All distances are cumulative over time and given in metres):

  • No Active Intervention Policy Scenario; and
  • With the implementation of Shoreline Management Plan 2 Policies.

Defence type and SMP policies for each of the three periods described above are included.

The data and associated information is intended for guidance purposes - it cannot provide details for individual properties. The NCERM information considers the predominant risk at the coast, although flooding and erosion processes are often linked, and data on erosion of foreshore features are, in general, not included.

The data describes the upper and lower estimates of erosion risk at a particular location, within which the actual location of the coastline is expected to lie.  The data does not estimate the absolute location of the future coastline.  Details of geologically complex areas, known as "complex cliffs" are, in general, not included within the dataset due to the inherent uncertainties associated with predicting the timing and extent of erosion at these locations.

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Contains Natural Resources Wales information © Natural Resources Wales and Database Right. All rights Reserved.

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  • National Coastal Erosion Risk Management - No Active Intervention

  • National Coastal Erosion Risk Management - SMP Policy

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